Odds of being dealt the following hands in the original 5 cards:
| HAND | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Royal Flush | 650,000 |
| Straight Flush | 72,200 |
| Four of a Kind | 4,200 |
| Full House | 700 |
| Flush | 510 |
| Straight | 250 |
| Three of a Kind | 48 |
| Two Pair | 21 |
| One Pair | 2.4 |
| No Pair | 2 |
Based on these chances of receiving an opening hand, there are a few things you can immediately conclude:
the more players at the table, the greater the chance that one or more players has a Pair, for example. In other words... the more players at the table, the lower the relative value of the lesser ranked hands. If you haven't got a Pair or better, or four cards to a Flush or Straight, Fold immediately. Perhaps this last bit of advice needs some elaboration. What it comes down to is this: if you hold nothing in the opener your chances of improving and beating the other players are too slim. Of course this means that you'll fold most of your opening hands. Welcome to Draw Poker.
So let's assume you've got a little something to build on. Every beginning player wants to know whether they should hold a kicker and a Pair, or just the Pair. Same with Trips. As you'll see in the following, the odds almost always favor tossing the kicker:
Chances of making:
| HAND | any improvement | 2 pair | 3 of a kind | Full House | 4 of a kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawing three cards to a Pair | 1 in 2.5 | 1 in 5 | 1 in 8 | 1 in 97 | 1 in 360 |
| Drawing two to a Pair with kicker | 1 in 3 | 1 in 5 | 1 in 12 | 1 in 120 | 1 in 1100 |
| Drawing two to Three of a Kind | 1 in 8.5 | -- | -- | 1 in 15.5 | 1 in 22.5 |
| Drawing one to Three of a Kind with kicker | 1 in 11 | -- | -- | 1 in 15 | 1 in 46 |
Needless to say, the better your opener, the better your chances of improving it. But forget about trying to build something out of a three card Flush or Straight: your odds are 1 in 23 and 1 in 150 respectively. It's highly unlikely that the pot would ever justify that kind of risk.
On the upside, observe the following chances if you hold four cards to build on:
Chances of completion:
| when drawing one card to | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Four cards of a Flush | 1 in 4.5 |
| Straight open at both ends | 1 in 5 |
| Straight open at one end | 1 in 11 |
| Straight open on the inside | 1 in 11 |
| Straight Flush open at both ends | 1 in 23 |
| Straight Flush open at one end | 1 in 46 |
| Straight Flush open on the inside | 1 in 46 |
In the end, it's these odds that must advise you on your Poker betting decisions. If you've got a four-card Flush and it'll cost you $20 to stay in, the question is "yes or no"?
